Historical Beat Rate and Post-Earnings Drift
Franklin Resources (BEN) has delivered earnings above the consensus estimate in 6 of its last 8 reported quarters, a 75% beat rate, with an average positive surprise of 10.8%. The most recent four reports were all beats: on 2026-07-31 the company earned $0.72 versus an estimate of $0.658 (9.4% surprise), on 2026-04-28 it earned $0.71 versus $0.55 (29.1% surprise), on 2026-01-30 it earned $0.70 versus $0.55 (27.3% surprise), and on 2025-11-07 it earned $0.67 versus $0.577 (16.1% surprise). Despite that track record, the next-day stock reaction has been inconsistent: the July 2026 report produced a 4.08% single-day move but a null 0% move over the next five sessions, the April 2026 report actually fell 0.03% the next day before gaining 3.39% over the following five days, the January 2026 report rose 1.69% the next day and 2.18% over five days, and the November 2025 report rose 1.3% the next day before slipping 0.27% over five days. Over the full eight-quarter history, the average five-day post-earnings move is 1.77% and the drift is classified as "up," which suggests that when the stock reacts positively to earnings, a portion of the gains tends to extend over the following week rather than being fully priced into the opening gap.
Options-Flow Dynamics Around the Next Report
The next scheduled earnings release is 2026-11-06 before the market open, and the published consensus EPS estimate is $0.74. Around that date, options flow will largely reflect how the market is pricing event risk. Because the historical five-day post-earnings drift is 1.77% to the upside, traders may compare that baseline with the move implied by the nearest-expiration straddle or strangle. If the options market is pricing a much larger move than the realized average, a beat could be followed by a volatility crush even if the headline result is strong. Conversely, if implied volatility looks compressed relative to BEN's 75% beat rate and 10.8% average surprise, the market may be underpricing event risk.
What a Disciplined Trader Watches
Given the historical pattern, a disciplined trader may focus on follow-through rather than the opening tick. BEN's current price is $35.2, the RSI is 65.8, and the 50-day EMA sits at $32.38, meaning the stock is trading above its intermediate-term moving average heading into the report. With the five-day drift classified as up but the next-day reaction variable, one approach is to watch whether the post-earnings move is backed by volume and whether the price holds above the $32.38 level in subsequent sessions. The unofficial consensus may differ slightly from the published $0.74 estimate, so comparing the actual print against the options-implied move can provide additional context. For a deeper dive into how institutional desks are positioning around the November 6 report, look at the full institutional verdict on BEN.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often has BEN beaten earnings recently?
BEN has beaten in 6 of its last 8 reported quarters, a 75% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 10.8%.
What is BEN's average five-day move after earnings?
Across the last eight reported quarters, BEN's average five-day post-earnings price move is 1.77%, classified as an "up" drift. For example, after the 2026-04-28 report the stock fell 0.03% the next day but rose 3.39% over the following five sessions.
When is BEN's next earnings report and what is the consensus?
BEN's next scheduled earnings release is 2026-11-06 before the open, and the consensus EPS estimate is $0.74.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | $0.72 | $0.658 | +9.4% | +4.08% | null% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.71 | $0.55 | +29.1% | -0.03% | +3.39% |
| 2026-01-30 | $0.7 | $0.55 | +27.3% | +1.69% | +2.18% |
| 2025-11-07 | $0.67 | $0.577 | +16.1% | +1.3% | -0.27% |
| 2025-08-01 | $0.49 | $0.4826 | +1.5% | - | - |
| 2025-05-02 | $0.47 | $0.4737 | -0.8% | - | - |
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